Bitcoin bulls defended the $31,000 level again, but data shows demand for BTC and altcoins is weak and this heightens the chase of further downside.
Price analysis 7/16: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, DOGE, DOT, UNI, BCH, LTCPRICE ANALYSIS
Bitcoin (BTC) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near $31,000, which makes it an important level to watch out for. Data from Glassnode shows that the $31,000 to $34,300 zone has seen strong interest from buyers and sellers as 9.93% of the Bitcoin supply has moved in this zone.
The failure of Bitcoin to rally quickly from strong support levels indicates weak demand. Proof of the current disinterest comes from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who said in a recent CNBC interview that investor demand for cryptocurrencies had declined recently. Fink said that during his last two weeks of business travel, not one question about Bitcoin and crypto investing was presented to him.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Another sign of reduced demand is that the 90-day inflow into the United States and Canada-based Bitcoin funds has plunged 93.49% from 191,846 BTC in January to 12,485 BTC, according to data collected by ByteTree Asset Management.
In an interview with CNBC on July 14, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said that Bitcoin could drop under $23,000 due to the head-and-shoulders trading pattern, which “looks pretty convincing.”
Will Bitcoin break below the support and start the next leg down or is it due for a rebound? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to determine the critical levels to watch out for.
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Bitcoin has been trading near the $31,000 support for the past two days. The failure to rebound sharply off this critical support is a weak sign as it suggests a lack of strong demand at these levels.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicate that bears have the upper hand. A break and close below $31,000 could open the doors for a drop to the next support at $28,000.
If the price rebounds off the $31,000 to $28,000 zone with strength, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The bulls will then try to push the price above the moving averages. A breakout and close above the 50-day simple moving average ($35,084) will be the first sign of a possible change in trend.
Conversely, if the price slips below $28,000, the bearish momentum could pick up and the BTC/USDT pair could slump to $20,000.
Ether’s (ETH) relief rally on July 14 could not rise above the 20-day exponential moving average ($2,097). This suggests that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on every minor rally. The biggest altcoin could now drop to the critical support at $1,728.74.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is below 41, indicating that bears are in control. If bears sink the price below $1,728.74, the ETH/USDT pair will complete a descending triangle pattern.
That could signal the resumption of the downtrend with the next support at $1,536.92 and then $1,293.18.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the $1,728.74 support, the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could rally to the downtrend line.
Binance Coin (BNB) has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($313) for the past few days. Although the price dipped below the 20-day EMA on July 14, the long tail on the day’s candlestick showed buying at lower levels.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buyers attempted to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($329) on July 15 but failed. This shows the bears have not yet given up and are aggressively defending the 50-day SMA. The flat moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand.
A breakout and close above the 50-day SMA will be the first sign of strength. The bulls will then try to push the price to $379.58 and later to $400. On the contrary, a break below the $276.40 to $264.26 support zone will signal advantage to the bears. That could pull the price down to $211.70.
Cardano’s (ADA) rebound off $1.19 on July 14 could not climb back above $1.28, suggesting that bears are defending this level aggressively. The price turned down from $1.28 on July 15 and plunged below $1.19 today.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The long tail on today’s candlestick suggests that bulls are again attempting to stall the decline and start a relief rally. A breakout and close above the 20-day EMA ($1.32) will be the first sign of strength. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($1.44).
On the other hand, if bears sustain the price below $1.19, the ADA/USDT pair could continue its decline to $1.10. A break below this support may retest the critical support at $1. This level has held on several occasions since Feb. 26, hence the bulls will again try to defend it.
A strong rebound off $1 will indicate accumulation at lower levels but the bulls are likely to face stiff resistance at $1.19. If the price turns down from this level, the possibility of a break below $1 increases. If that happens, the pair could start a new downtrend with the next support at $0.80.
The bulls are attempting to defend the $0.59 support for the past two days but have not been able to achieve a strong rebound off it. This suggests a lack of urgency among traders to buy XRP at the current levels.